FIVE REASONS – why there will NOT be a civil war in America

Let me start with a disclaimer.  I am not an American and I, therefore, acknowledge that my perspective is mainly based on personal exposure.  Over the past 40 years, I have lived in the USA, I have preached in the USA, as vice-president of an organisation who had its financial headquarters in the USA I have often travelled to the USA and I have deep and lasting relationships in the USA.  But the fact that I am not an American may prove to be an advantage.  My perspective is objective – I have no agendas; I have nothing to lose and I have nothing to prove.  I have a deep appreciation for all Americans who hold dear to their hearts the values of freedom, democracy and dignity.  I have observed that the people of America, throughout their glorious history, have always found a way to rise above their challenges, and that is why I believe there will not be a civil war in the USA

I also have the added advantage that I live in a nation where, by all probabilities and predictions, there should have been a civil war 26 years ago when racial tensions were at an all-time high and fear lived in the hearts of many South African.  But there wasn’t.  I have observed through the years that the human spirit in its quest for personal security, family stability and community serenity has always overruled the momentary tensions brought about by people with personal agendas.  The tensions between liberals and conservatives are mostly media-driven and, with the exception of marginalised radicals, does not exist naturally in the American society – it always happens sporadically and then dies a slow but natural death.

So, looking beyond the obvious spiritual reasons like prayer, a strong Church and God’s intervention, here are FIVE practical reasons why I believe there will NOT be a civil war in the USA:

1. HISTORY teaches

The trouble with all the media pundits and doom prophets who predict that an American civil war is inevitable is that they seek the sensational but lack in analytical substance. What is even more concerning is that many of the people who are lamenting the violence are often the champions of the very institutions that created that conflict.

It is always a good practice to look at the past to understand the present.  Black Lives Matter marches have taken over streets and highways, but this was not the first protests that turned violent and temporarily divided the nation, and it won’t be the last.  America has been through many protests in their recent history and none has ever resulted in a civil war.

Just in the last decade, America has witnessed 36 protests of significance^[1] – an average of nearly four violent protests per year.  Most of these protests were race-related but often accentuated through political agendas and hijacked by accelerationists (https://thethirdway.org/spiritual-accelerationism/) taking advantage of volatile situations to promote their own anarchy.

History has proven that Americans have the ability to rise above their differences in the past and find solutions for the future.  No doubt this will happen again, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

2. WORLDVIEW dominates

The dominating factor in how communities respond to challenges is internal, not external – our worldviews are our default response-systems that will determine how we react.  In Africa, the default worldview is FEAR AND POWER.  Protests, wars, and revolutions are a display of power and if America was situated in Africa, chances were good that there would be a civil war.  In the Middle East, the default worldview is HONOUR AND SHAME.  When a nation or a community is put to shame, honour must be restored and this is mostly the background for many unrests in the Middle East today.  If America were somewhere in the Middle East, chances are good there would have been a civil unrest.  But in the Western world, the default worldview is GUILT AND INNOCENCE – right and wrong.  This is obvious in the response of most American in the current unrests.  There is either a deep display of guilt or an outcry that the violence is wrong.  In a sense, America is currently going through a civil war but displayed by the default worldview of guilt and innocence.   External factors will not dominate the response of most Americans, their internal compass will.

We can change culture, but we cannot change worldview, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

3. MAJORITY decides

According to USA Today^[2] there have been demonstrations in at least 1,700 places during June 2020 after George Floyd was murdered.  It is impossible to determine the attendance, and repeated attendance by individuals, at these rallies and according to Wikipedia the numbers ranged from ‘dozens’, to ‘hundreds’, to ‘thousands’ and ‘tens of thousands’^[3].  A guestimate of 10,000 unique people per rally on average (excluding police and National Guards members) would most probably be an overestimate but for the sake of this exercise would prove a point.  This would mean that 17 million Americans, at the most, participated in the protests.  As significant as this sounds, it still only represents 5% of the population of the USA of 331 million people.

There is a further argument to consider.  According to The Guardian^[4] more than 10,000 people have been arrested during the protests.  Regardless of the accuracy of this figure, it still represents only a minute portion of those who participated.  Some protests turned violent and received the media coverage it did not deserve.  Most protestors and protests were peaceful and reconciliatory.  Protestors and police praying together was a common sight in many cities.  Black and white walking together in casual conversation was the norm.  It could be said that the protests brought more people together than it ripped people apart.  Sadly, the images that received global attention do not reflect the above-average American

There is no doubt that the majority of peace-loving Americans will not be deceived into killing one another, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

4. DEMOCRACY guides

Democracy in the USA, as I discovered through the years, is not a legal document, a concept or even a right.  It is not simply an ideology that was established in 1776, with the Declaration of Independence. It didn’t come in 1788, when the Constitution was ratified by the states, or in 1789, when George Washington took office.  Democracy in the USA is a culture.  It is what makes America, America.  Democracy is a way of life.  It is a culture and a worldview.  America does not have a democracy; they are a democracy.

If one understands this concept then it is easy to see that civil-war is not something that is even a consideration in the hearts of most Americans, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

5. CAPACITY decides

Civil war is inevitable only when discontent rules the masses.  Minorities has never been able to lead content majorities into civil wars or revolutions.  The breeding ground for a civil war is extreme corruption, poverty, political discontent, and radicalism – not the evidence thereof, which is in every community on earth, but the dominance thereof.  Not one of these elements are currently dominating the American society

Jeffrey A. Tucker, Editorial Director for the American Institute for Economic Research, writes the following^[5]:

Here’s the thing about civil wars. You can’t escape real ones. The one that Friedman cites (“I began my journalism career covering a civil war in Lebanon. I never thought I’d end my career covering a civil war in America.”) can be made to disappear with some simple steps. Stop checking Twitter, turn off the TV, ignore politics for a few weeks, and stop getting sucked into the vast industry that thrives off conflict and the attention you give it. You will be amazed at the peace you will find in the world outside the screens you stare at. When I think about the U.S. today by comparison, we see something similar on a much different level. The state has grown and grown to become a mighty beast over the last 100 years, and fed vicious conflicts between groups: rich vs. poor, black vs. white, old vs. young, men vs. women, natives vs. immigrants, gay vs. straight, professional class vs. working-class, West vs. East, North vs. South. Where this conflict is most pronounced is in the political struggle. Take that away and you observe the capacity for social harmony.

The capacity of Americans to live together in harmony outweighs their discontent with their current racial, political, and economic challenges, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

FIVE RESPONSES TO RACIAL CONFLICT

South Africa might not have invented racism, nor have we conquered it, but we have learnt some painful lessons from past. A nation that endearingly became known as the “Rainbow Nation” after the first democratic elections in 1994 still battles with suspicion and fear. We have matured, albeit at a painfully slow pace, but we still are a nation of wonderful people trying to escape the sporadic outbursts of racial tensions. We might not have all the answers, but we certainly have enough experience in broken relationships to warn today’s America about what paths not to pursue when it comes to responding to racism.

• Do not allow your response to destroy your NATION

The cure to racism lies in repentance from the radical minority as well as in reconciliation from the moderate majority. “Do not let evil defeat you; instead, conquer evil with good” (Romans 12:21). Never allow the evil of a small minority (and the response to it) conquer the good of the majority.

 

• Do not allow your response to destroy your RELATIONSHIPS

A post on Facebook declared: “If you support them (the “white supremacists”) then I don’t support you, UNFRIEND me.” This was from one Christian to all her friends. And while the response is understandable in the face of racism, it is sad how there is no desire to sit and discuss differences face-to-face. Many racists are indoctrinated by upbringings and the attitudes of elders and sitting down with someone with whom we disagree could play a role in radical change if we are willing to listen before judging. America is too great a nation to be side-tracked by broken relationships.

• Do not allow your response to destroy your DEMOCRACY

Democracy is built on the right of all people to have convictions that differ from one another – it is not rooted in the principle that everybody agrees with one another. The fact that my convictions offend you does not necessarily mean that you are right, and vice versa. Without question, some things like racism and the destruction of another’s dignity is deeply un-Christian and has no place in a ‘Christian’ society, but there are a lot of other grey areas where people differ widely in opinion. Judging people for thinking differently, even if it offends, goes against the principles of a glorious democracy.

• Do not allow your response to destroy your WITNESS

Christians are not called to be RIGHT; they are called to be KIND. A sad reality is that some responses to racism destroy the Christian witness. When Christians respond with the same anger as non-Christians, and when it becomes easier to condemn than to convict, the Christian witness is ruined. Sadly, social media often provides a platform for people to ‘condemn nicely’ using Christian jargon with the un-Christian attitude of self-righteousness.

• Do not allow your response to destroy your VIRTUES

Racism feeds on anger, fear, suspicion, and a victim mentality. If we respond with an attitude of aggressive self-righteousness, any racial event will spiral into worsening hatred. It might be good to read 1 Corinthians 13 (v 4-8) again: “Love is patient and kind, love is not ill-mannered or selfish or irritable; love does not keep a record of wrongs, love is not happy with evil, but is happy with the truth. Love never gives up; and its faith, hope, and patience never fail. Love is eternal” (GNB).

A Christian response to racism

Bill Hybels advised the following at the 2017 Global Leadership Summit:

1. Set the example of how to differ with others without demonising them.
2. Model how to have spirited conversations without ‘drawing blood’.
3. Set the example of being courteous in word and deed.
4. Apologise immediately when wrong instead of denying or doubling down.
5. Form opinions carefully and stay open-minded if better information comes along.

Richard Rohr says the following:

“Let me describe God’s universal love as best I can: love is recognising oneself in the other by realising they are not other! We are all in this together.”

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States

[2] https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/06/03/map-protests-wake-george-floyds-death/5310149002/

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_George_Floyd_protests_in_the_United_States

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/08/george-floyd-killing-police-arrest-non-violent-protesters

[5] https://www.aier.org/article/no-america-is-not-in-a-civil-war/