THE BACONIAN FALLACY OF GAZA:  and the death of human compassion

The death of human compassion is one of the earliest and most telling signs of a culture about to fall into barbarism.  – Hannah Arendt –

“Being right is massively overrated, especially when it comes at the expense of being compassionate and kind” – Scott Stabile-

 

In Rumsfeld’s Rules: Leadership Lessons in Business, Politics, War, and Life, former Defense[1], Secretary Donald Rumsfeld writes the following:

• There are known knowns: the things you know you know.
• There are known unknowns: the things you know you don’t know.
• But there are also unknown unknowns: the things you don’t know you don’t know.

The last category can be the most dangerous, in war and in life.

Israel didn’t know that it didn’t know Hamas was preparing for the October 2023 invasion that massacred more than a thousand Israelis and changed the course of the Middle East.  If they suspected an attack could happen, and even knew that they didn’t know, it could have been prevented.  But they didn’t know that they didn’t know, and it was fatal.

Hamas knew that they knew that Israel would retaliate, but they didn’t know to what extent.  The fact that they knew but didn’t know what they knew, saw the massacre of more than 47,000 people and the destruction of the whole enclave.

Hezbollah didn’t know that they didn’t know Israel was weaponizing pagers to kill many of its leaders.  The fact that they didn’t know what they didn’t know, meant they were unable to prepare and avoid the wounding and killing of more than 4,000 civilians.

It’s bad enough when we don’t know what we need to know, such as whether The Coronavirus will become a pandemic or AI will threaten humanity. It’s worse when what we think we know turns out to be wrong, such as Israel’s certainty that Hamas did not have the capability to stage the October 7 invasion.

But there is one category even more dangerous in our spiritual endeavours than the UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS and that is the UNKNOWN KNOWNS, when facts are available but we know only parts of the truth and are therefore erroneously convinced that we know the whole truth.  Unknown knowns create a selective and biased approach and ultimately harden our hearts and blind our eyes.  This is one of the more serious challenges to a hardened heart of compassion.

When Israelis were abducted by Hamas terrorists, we referred to them as HOSTAGES and demanded their freedom.  This is a known known; and rightly so.  But when Palestinian children were abducted by IDF soldiers we refered to them as PRISONERS, because we assumed they deserved it.  After all, “they” are part of “them”.  In the mind of the onlooker, a hostage is an innocent victim and deserves pity while a prisoner gets what he deserves – judgement.  The unknown known that each year approximately 500-700 Palestinian children, some as young as 12 years old, are abducted, detained and prosecuted in the Israeli military court system is of little concern for those who rely purely on confirmation bias evidence.[2]  This unknown known deprives us of compassion and results in a spiritual righteousness, void of grace and offensive to God.

When Israel confirmed the death toll of 7 October 2023 to be 1,139 people and at least 8,730 injured the numbers were left unchallenged and accepted as truth.  And rightly so.  But when the Health Ministry of Gaza reports that 47,771 (as of 23 January 2025) Palestinians have been killed in Gaza it is met with suspicion and distrust.   The unknown known that these numbers have been confirmed by five independent sources with an ID name and number next to each corpse is of little concern for those who rely purely on confirmation bias evidence.[3]  This unknown known deprives us of compassion and results in a spiritual righteousness that is void of grace and offensive to God.

There are many more examples where, with a little research, the unknown known factual evidence can be discovered to turn unknown knowns into known knowns:

BACONIAN FALLACY

This fallacy of biased believing, holding on to unknown knowns while there is enough evidence available to prove the opposite, is known as “BACONIAN FALLACY”.

The term “Baconian fallacy” originates from Sir Francis Bacon, who was an influential figure in the scientific revolution of the 17th century. Baconian fallacy refers to the mistaken approach of relying purely on observed evidence without considering alternative explanations or theories. This fallacy happens when people collect a lot of data and assume that the patterns they observe represent ultimate truths without acknowledging other potential variables or biases.

Bacon himself emphasized the importance of observation and experimentation in science, but he also warned against hastily jumping to conclusions based solely on accumulated facts. Instead, he advocated for a methodical approach where hypotheses are rigorously tested and challenged.

Now comes the point:

The God that we serve is not an UNKNOWN God.  He is a KNOWN KNOWN.  He was fully revealed through Christ Jesus who came to seek and save the lost, who forgave His enemies and prayed for those who persecuted Him.  He is the One who told His followers to love even those who would harm them, hurt them and oppose them.  There is no room for a Baconian fallacy, an unknown known or even a known unknown.  In Christ, we have a KNOWN KNOWN

Satan loves to destroy a heart of compassion by “inoculating” us with just enough of the truth that we become immune to the Father of ALL compassion (2 Corinthians 1:3).  We get so caught up in the KNOWN KNOWNS, the facts and figures that we research so diligently and hold on to so tightly, that we lose sight of the way that the KNOWN KNOWN Redeemer has shown us.

I am often guilty of this, and my guess is that you might be to.

So, let us remind ourselves of the words of Jordan Harrell:

• Genocide is biblical.
• Loving your enemy is biblical.
• But only one is Christlike.
• Slavery is biblical.
• Chain breaking is biblical.
• But only one is Christlike.
• Patriarchy is biblical.
• Counter-cultural elevation of women is biblical.
• But only one is Christlike.
• Retributive violence is biblical.
• Grace-filled restoration is biblical.
• But only one is Christlike.
• Segregation is biblical.
• Unity is biblical.
• But only one is Christlike.
• Christ transforms and beautifies,
• not the Bible.
• Be wary of those who know one but not the other.

This article was inspired by Dr. Jim Denison:  Denison Forum | Christian News Today | Latest Christian Headlines

 

[1] Amazon.com: Rumsfeld’s Rules: Leadership Lessons in Business, Politics, War, and Life: 9780062272850: Rumsfeld, Donald: Books

[2] https://www.dci-palestine.org/children_in_israeli_detention

[3] https://thethirdway.org/the-gaza-death-toll-can-the-numbers-be-trusted/

[4] https://thethirdway.org/a-christian-response-to-atrocity-propaganda/