THE GAZA DEATH TOLL: Can the numbers be trusted?
Originally published on 8 January 2024 – Updated on 14 October 2024
“The first victim of war is truth”.
This statement was made 2,500 years ago by Aeschylus, an ancient Greek tragedian often described as the father of tragedy. This statement can be repeated for every war that has been fought ever since, and the conflict in Gaza is no exception. However, Aeschylus lived in an era when the objectivity of truth had not yet been penetrated by social media: a weapon of mass manipulation, sowing the seeds of cynicism and suspicion.
FROM A CHRISTIAN PERSPECTIVE
From a Christian perspective, an important spiritual truth to embrace even before examining the numbers in question, is that suspicion and compassion can never co-exist in the same heart. Arguing about numbers cannot replace a Christ-like attitude of mourning the death of every soul that perishes in a war of hatred; whether it be a Hamas fighter, an IDF soldier, a woman, or an innocent child.
It is therefore more important to ask the right questions than getting the right answers. The first question that Christians should ask is not whether these numbers are true or false. Determining the legitimacy or factual evidence is only our second concern. Our first response, as Christ followers, should always be that of compassion, regardless of who, where and how many are suffering. Only then do we seek to determine the scope and legitimacy of what is presented to us.
So, let’s start with a Christian response:
Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr. preached on the story of the good Samaritan often and once said that the real difference between the priest and the Levite from the Samaritan is the question that each one of us must ask. The priest and the Levite likely asked, “If I stop to help this man, what will happen to me?”. The Samaritan likely asked a very different question – “If I do not stop to help this man, what will happen to him?”
It doesn’t take looking at our TV screens for very long to discover that we are all affected by the war between Israel and her neighbors right now – Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran. We may find ourselves responding like the Priest and the Levite: “Hamas deserves it, they are a bunch of terrorists. Israel has the right to defend itself. It is not really as bad as we are made to believe, the numbers are inflated. And, most of all, remember the Biblical and prophetic position of Israel as God’s chosen people.”
But there are those who look through glasses of redemption and respond differently by saying “What difference does it make whether it is 40 or 40,000 – one soul that perishes without Jesus is one soul too many. What difference does it make whether it is Jew or Muslim – they are all lost without the saving grace of Christ. What difference does it make whether it is a child of a Hamas fighter or a child from an IDF fighter, they are all innocent, suffering and they all need the Good News of redemption, hope and peace.
The choice is ours – Priest, Levite or Samaritan
THE NUMBERS
Obtaining truth, however, is equally important in our pursuit of meaningful involvement. The numbers do matter and will help us in synchronising reality with empathy. It will deepen our reasoning for involvement to the next level – moving from mere compassion to purposeful action.
So, the next question, for a meaningful response to the situation in Gaza, is to explore the legitimacy of the number of Gazans who have been killed by the Israel Defence Force, provided by the Hamas-run health ministry of Gaza. The following numbers were released on Monday 14 October 2024:
- At least 42,979 people have now been killed in the relentless bombings,
- including more than 16,765 children.
- and 11,346 women
- 69% of all fatalities
- More than 98,464 have now been injured.
- 1 in every 23 people in Gaza is now maimed or injured
- More than 10,000 Gazans are still missing, most probably dead and buried in the rubble.
- 1.7 million people in Gaza have infected diseases because of the war (75%)
- 2.15 million people in Gaza are facing a severe lack of food supplies (96%)
Instead of being pierced with a deep sense of sorrow, these numbers are often received with a mix of cynicism, anger or simply skepticism and suspicion. The figures have been publicly rejected by the Israeli Government, citing that the Hamas-run health ministry cannot be trusted and that the numbers are exaggerated and overinflated. Israel’s greatest ally, the USA, responded with a similar response. US President Joe Biden sided with Israel and said he has “no confidence” in the Gaza statistics.
In an article in ISRAEL365NEWS Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz quotes Hamas saying that 80% of casualties are terrorists and family of members. A quote from Abraham Wyner, a professor of statistics at the Wharton School, is then used to highlight the implausibility of Hamas’s assertion that 70% of casualties are women and children, labeling it “statistically impossible.”
Neither the news source nor Mr. Wyner are neutral in this regard and the same criteria used to place the Hamas reports under suspicion should therefore apply to them as well.
In stark contrast with the comments of the IDF and Israel supporters, the UN’s World Health Organization (WHO), who have no interest in claiming any allegiances to Hamas or Israel, said they have no reason to disbelieve the numbers.
SO, WHO DO WE BELIEVE?
It is important to start by confirming that in any warzone, counting the dead is a challenge. Gaza is no different. As battles intensify and the bombardment by the Israeli Defence forces increases, with communications blackouts, fuel shortages and a crumbling infrastructure – getting accurate information on the number of people who have died becomes extremely demanding, if not near impossible.
When observing the numbers currently provided by the Health Ministry of Gaza it is equally important to note that it is NOT “thumb-suck”, unverifiable statistics. There are several groups and institutions involved in providing the numbers published on social media. The groups currently collaborating in providing the number of deaths are as follows:
- the Palestinian Red Crescent
- An independent research group, Airwars, who matches the deaths it has investigated to the names on the health ministry’s list.
- The UN – who has assessed death figures in Gaza during previous periods of conflict.
- Healthcare workers from Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders) who have been treating people at hospitals in Gaza City.
HOW THE DECEASED ARE COUNTED
A day after Mr Biden dismissed the numbers, the health ministry in Gaza provided more information, publishing an extensive list of names of all those who had been killed between 7 and 26 October 2023. The list included more than 6,000 full names with their ages, sex and ID numbers.
How was it compiled? The BBC has spoken to people involved in gathering and organising the data as well as academics who have checked for duplicates on the list of names. The BBC Verification Team also spoke to an independent research group, Airwars, which is in the process of matching deaths it has investigated to names on the health ministry’s list and the UN – which has assessed death figures in Gaza during previous periods of conflict.
Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah from Doctors without Borders explained to the BBC in an interview that the hospital morgue records deaths after confirming the identity of the dead person with their relatives. The number of deaths registered so far, he believes, is far fewer than those that have actually occurred. “Most of the deaths happen at home,” he says. “The ones we could not identify, we did not record.”
However, once a body is found, it “has to be taken to the hospital to be recorded”, says a spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent. To examine the health ministry’s list, the BBC cross-referenced names included on it with the names of dead people who had appeared in their reporting.
CONCLUSION
In our pursuit for truth, and our search for factual evidence to confirm our understanding of truth, it therefore becomes paramount to realise that perfect truth as revealed through Christ, is far more than just facts that can be verified, a set of moral values or a spiritual guide to righteousness. Jesus declared, “I am the way, the truth and the life; no man comes to the Father but by Me” (John 14:6). He didn’t say He came to reveal the truth or even to confirm, teach or model the truth. He IS the truth. Truth personified and perfectly executed. Jesus therefore became the embodiment and source of all truth. Truth is therefore not found in Scripture first and foremost, it is found in the life of Christ. Scripture just describes it. Truth is not something we own, it’s someone we follow. His proclamation of the Kingdom, His interaction with sinners, His engagement of love, His heart of compassion, His life of reconciliation, His message of mercy, His commission to proclaim good news to the poor, freedom for the prisoners and recovery of sight for the blind, to set the oppressed free and to proclaim the Lord’s favour (Luke 4:18-19), was His reflection of truth, not His teaching of truth. This became the absolute truth when the Word became flesh
Sadly, this understanding of TRUTH, that it is relational and not factual, has been replaced by a lie of exclusion and dualism, us and them, judgement and condemnation. Truth became the measuring stick by which we judge people, their words and their actions while truth was intended to reveal God as embodied through Christ.
According to Jesus, compassion, forgiveness, love, grace and mercy seem to be at the top of the Christian hierarchy of great truths, and everything falls apart whenever mercy is displaced by anything else.
May this be our guideline for all who suffer: the victims of 7 October in Israel and the subsequent victims in Gaza!
- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67347201
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
- https://israel365news.com/397047/report-hamas-admits-80-of-casualties-are-terrorists-and-family-of-members/