“THESE COLOURS DON’T RUN”:  The American elections and a civil war

“These colours don’t run.” – This patriotic slogan emerged during the 1980s and has been used to express American pride and resilience. The phrase refers to the colours of the American flag and symbolizes the country’s unwavering commitment to its values and principles.

Adapted from an article written in 2018

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.  Several scholars, lawmakers, intelligence agencies, and the members of the public have expressed concerns about political violence surrounding the 2024 election. The fears come amidst increasing threats and acts of physical violence targeting public officials and election workers at all levels of government.

In her 2022 book, “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them,” renowned political scientist Barbara F. Walter argues that “we are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe” because of a toxic mix of political extremism and polarization, social and cultural tribalism, the popular embrace of conspiracy theories, proliferation of guns and well-armed militias and the erosion of faith in government and the liberal, Western democratic state. Among the key factors she cites is accelerationism —which Walter describes as “the apocalyptic belief that modern society is irredeemable and that its end must be hastened, so that a new order can be brought into being.”

Accelerationism, Walter warns, is embraced by a spectrum of white supremacists, white nationalists, racists, antisemites, xenophobes and anti-government militants as a clarion call to revolution. They fervently believe that the modern Western, liberal state is so corrupt and inept that it is beyond redemption and must be destroyed in order to create a new society and way of governance.  Her conclusion is that a Civil War is inevitable.

I beg to differ.  I, for one, do not believe there will be a civil war in America

Let me start with a disclaimer.  I am not an American and I, therefore, acknowledge that my perspective is mainly based on a limited personal exposure.  Over the past 40 years, I have lived in the USA, I have preached in the USA, as vice-president of an organisation who had its financial headquarters in the USA I have often travelled to the USA, and I have deep and lasting relationships in the USA.  But the fact that I am not an American may prove to be to my advantage.  My perspective is objective – I have no agendas; I have nothing to lose and I have nothing to defend.  I do not support Donald Trump, and I do not support Kamala Harris.  I see the flaws in both and I have the liberty to explore this without compromising my convictions.  I have a deep appreciation for all Americans who hold dear to their hearts the values of liberty, democracy and dignity.  I have observed that the people of America, throughout their glorious history, have always found a way to rise above their challenges, and that is why I believe there will not be a civil war in the USA

I also have the added advantage that I live in a nation where, by all probabilities and predictions, there should have been a civil war 30 years ago when racial tensions were at an all-time high and fear lived in the hearts of many South Africans.  But there wasn’t.  I have observed through the years that the human spirit in its quest for personal security, family stability and community has always overruled the momentary tensions brought about by people with personal agendas.  The tensions between liberals and conservatives are mostly media-driven and, with the exception of marginalised radicals, does not exist naturally in the American society – it always happens sporadically and then dies a slow but natural death.

So, looking beyond the obvious spiritual reasons like prayer, a strong Church and God’s intervention, here are FOUR practical reasons why I believe there will NOT be a civil war in the USA:

1. WHAT HISTORY TEACHES US

The trouble with all the media pundits and doom prophets who predict that an American civil war is inevitable is that they seek the sensational but lack in analytical substance. What is even more concerning is that many of the people who are lamenting the division in US society are often the champions of the very institutions that created that conflict.

It is always a good practice to look at the past to understand the present.  America has been through countless divisive elections and yet none has resulted in a civil war

Think about the 1968 elections and how riots lead to Nixon Law-and-Order Clincher.  Nixon, having narrowly lost in 1960, was looking for an epic comeback. Kennedy’s vice president, Lyndon B. Johnson, became president in November 1963 after the Kennedy assassination and won by a landslide in 1964. However, the painful stalemate in Vietnam and urban race riots during the summers beginning in 1965 had sapped Johnson’s popularity. In the spring of 1968, Johnson chose not to run for re-election, opening up the Democratic primaries. Democratic senator Robert F. Kennedy, the younger brother of John F. Kennedy, was assassinated in June while campaigning in California, traumatizing the country again only two months after the assassination of civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr.

Three assassinations and still no civil war testifies of a nation that has the ability to turn retributive justice into restorative justice.

The 2016 presidential election saw unexpected twists and turns for both parties. Although Clinton won almost 3 million more popular votes than Trump, the Republican nominee narrowly won most of the swing states, allowing for his electoral college victory. Due to Clinton’s strong popular vote margin of victory and Trump’s controversial nature, as well as the media’s embarrassing failure to predict the election outcome, the 2016 election is one of the most divisive in history.  Still no civil war

The 2020 presidential primaries were not as dramatic as their 2016 predecessors, but the unexpected late-blooming strength of former Democratic vice president Joe Biden caused drama later on. With America on edge due to the ongoing Covid pandemic, the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden resulted in rudeness and hostilities. Although a second debate went smoother, the incumbent president struggled as a candidate due to the Covid pandemic. Biden won handily on election night in November, but then Trump refused to concede the election. In a first since 1800, an incumbent president was declaring the election fraudulent.

On January 6, 2021, two weeks before the inauguration, pro-Trump protesters stormed the US Capitol, allegedly fueled by Trump’s continued insistence that the election had been “stolen.” As of 2024, this event remains the subject of many criminal investigations. Ultimately, Trump did allow for the peaceful transfer of power on January 20, with Biden being inaugurated as planned, though Trump himself broke with tradition by refusing to attend.

History has proven that Americans have the ability to rise above their differences in the past and find solutions for the future.  No doubt this will happen again, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

1. HOW OUR WORLDVIEWS DOMINATE US

The dominating factor in how communities respond to challenges is internal, not external – our worldviews are our default response systems that will determine how we react.  In Africa, the default worldview is FEAR AND POWER.  Protests, wars, and revolutions are a display of power and if America was situated in Africa, chances were good that there would be a civil war.

In the Middle East, the default worldview is HONOUR AND SHAME.  When a nation or a community is put to shame, honour must be restored and this is mostly the background for many unrests in the Middle East today.  If America were somewhere in the Middle East, chances are good there would have been a civil unrest.

But in the Western world, the default worldview is GUILT AND INNOCENCE – right and wrong.  This is obvious in the response of most American in the current elections.  There is either a deep display of guilt or an outcry that the violence is wrong.  In a sense, America is currently going through a civil war but displayed by the default worldview of guilt and innocence.   External factors will not dominate the response of most Americans, their internal compass will.

We can change culture, but we cannot change worldviews, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

3. HOW A DEMOCRACY GUIDES US

America does not have a democracy; they are a democracy.  There is a big difference.

America is always referred to as the greatest democracy on earth.  This title is earned.  And democracy in the USA, as I discovered through the years, is not a legal document, a concept or even a right.  It is not simply an ideology that was established in 1776, with the Declaration of Independence. It didn’t come in 1788, when the Constitution was ratified by the states, or in 1789, when George Washington took office.  Democracy in the USA is a culture.  It is what makes America, America.  Democracy is a way of life.  It is a culture and a worldview.

Let me repeat:  America does not have a democracy; they are a democracy.  If one understands this concept then it is easy to see that civil-war is not something that is even a consideration in the hearts of most Americans, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

4. HOW THE MAJORITY STEERS US

Civil war is inevitable only when discontent rules the masses.  Minorities have never been able to lead content majorities into civil wars or revolutions.  The breeding ground for a civil war is extreme corruption, poverty, political discontent, and radicalism – not the evidence thereof, which is in every community on earth, but the dominance thereof.  Not one of these elements are currently dominating the American society

Jeffrey A. Tucker, Editorial Director for the American Institute for Economic Research, writes the following^[5]:

Here’s the thing about civil wars. You can’t escape real ones. The one that Friedman cites (“I began my journalism career covering a civil war in Lebanon. I never thought I’d end my career covering a civil war in America.”) can be made to disappear with some simple steps. Stop checking Twitter, turn off the TV, ignore politics for a few weeks, and stop getting sucked into the vast industry that thrives off conflict and the attention you give it. You will be amazed at the peace you will find in the world outside the screens you stare at. When I think about the U.S. today by comparison, we see something similar on a much different level. The state has grown and grown to become a mighty beast over the last 100 years, and fed vicious conflicts between groups: rich vs. poor, black vs. white, old vs. young, men vs. women, natives vs. immigrants, gay vs. straight, professional class vs. working-class, West vs. East, North vs. South. Where this conflict is most pronounced is in the political struggle. Take that away and you observe the capacity for social harmony.

The capacity of Americans to live together in harmony outweighs their discontent with their current racial, political, and economic challenges, and that is why there will not be a civil war in the USA

A CHRISTIAN RESPONSE TO POLITICAL CONFLICT

• Do not allow your response to destroy your WITNESS

Christians are not called to be RIGHT; they are called to be KIND. A sad reality is that some responses to political division destroy the Christian witness. When Christians respond with the same anger as non-Christians, and when it becomes easier to condemn than to convict, the Christian witness is destroyed. Sadly, social media often provides a platform for people to ‘condemn nicely’ using Christian jargon with the un-Christian attitude of self-righteousness.

• Do not allow your response to destroy your VIRTUES

Political division feeds on anger, fear, suspicion, and a victim mentality. If we respond with an attitude of aggressive self-righteousness, any political division will spiral into worsening hatred. It might be good to read 1 Corinthians 13 (v 4-8) again: “Love is patient and kind, love is not ill-mannered or selfish or irritable; love does not keep a record of wrongs, love is not happy with evil, but is happy with the truth. Love never gives up; and its faith, hope, and patience never fail. Love is eternal” (GNB).

A Christian response to political division

Bill Hybels advised the following at the 2017 Global Leadership Summit:

1. Set the example of how to differ with others without demonising them.
2. Model how to have spirited conversations without ‘drawing blood’.
3. Set the example of being courteous in word and deed.
4. Apologise immediately when wrong instead of denying or doubling down.
5. Form opinions carefully and stay open-minded if better information comes along.

Richard Rohr says the following:

“Let me describe God’s universal love as best I can: love is recognising oneself in the other by realising they are not other! We are all in this together.”

 

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States

[2] https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/06/03/map-protests-wake-george-floyds-death/5310149002/

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_George_Floyd_protests_in_the_United_States

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/08/george-floyd-killing-police-arrest-non-violent-protesters

[5] https://www.aier.org/article/no-america-is-not-in-a-civil-war/