Ukraine – One year later: 6 Questions of significance
On 24 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised ‘special military operations’ in eastern Ukraine. Now, a year later, experts say neither side is close to winning and that the world should brace itself for continued conflict. To understand the current conflict and pray with insight, here are six questions of significance
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WHERE did it all start?
In order to fully understand the current conflict, it is important to go back in history to March 2014, in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Euromaiden movement, when protests by pro-Russian and anti-government separatist groups took place in the Donesk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the Donbas region.
These demonstrations, which followed the February–March 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and which were part of a wider group of concurrent protests across southern and eastern Ukraine, escalated into an armed conflict between the separatist forces of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR, respectively), and the Ukrainian government.
Russia announced recognition of the DPR and LPR on 21 February 2022
In early February 2022, satellite images released by the US showed Russian troops being deployed at the border with Belarus. This came shortly ahead of Russia’s planned ‘joint drills’ with Belarus, which NATO alerted as the biggest deployment of Russian troops since the Cold War. Amid high tensions, the West accused Russia of planning the invasion of Ukraine and threatened severe sanctions.
On February 22, 2022, Putin ordered Russian troops into Luhansk and Donetsk—two Russian-backed rebel regions in the southeast of Ukraine. Luhansk and Donetsk are together known as Donbas. This set off alarm bells in the West even as Putin claimed the troops were meant for “peacekeeping”. The US responded by imposing sanctions, while Germany put a stop to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
On February 24, Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, targeting major Ukrainian cities, including its capital Kyiv. Putin said the “special military operation” is aimed at “demilitarisation” and “denazification” of Ukraine to protect the ethnic Russians. The full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine came over eight years after its illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014. The world still recognises Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as Ukrainian.
As the war escalated, Putin, in September, announced the annexation of the four partially occupied provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
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Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
The answer to this question will largely depend on the narrative that you believe.
From Putin’s perspective, the biggest threat to Russia comes in the form of an acronym – NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance of European countries (including the United States) that came together after the second world war and has never recognised Russia as an equal.
In many ways, NATO sees Russia as the same old protagonist that threatened the world during the cold-war era. Putin clearly sees the presence of NATO as a military threat that mushroomed closer to its borders as the years went by. Ukraine was figuratively the last straw that broke the camel’s back, and Russia, in its own defence, had no option but to put a stop to NATO’s advance.
Consider the following from a Russian perspective:
Since 1949, NATO’s membership has increased from 12 to 30 countries through eight rounds of enlargement. The Republic of North Macedonia became the latest country to join the Alliance on 27 March 2020. Currently, five partner countries have declared their aspirations for NATO membership: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Georgia, Sweden, and Ukraine. Ukraine, bordering Russia, suddenly embodied a military threat, and Putting will do whatever he deems necessary to make sure that Belarus, Ukraine and Georgia never gain membership.
This narrative is dismissed by Western leaders as false but firmly believed by Russians and their allies. The truth is that if Western powers admit that this narrative could hold some truth, it will automatically shift the villain image of Putin as the “aggressor” onto the shoulders of NATO.
Pray for reconciliation – that leaders will have the grace to put agendas and narratives aside, listen to one another, and consider solutions that will benefit everybody.
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How has the war affected life?
One year on, thousands of Ukrainian civilians are dead, and countless buildings have been destroyed. Tens of thousands of troops have been killed or seriously wounded on each side. Beyond Ukraine’s borders, the invasion shattered European security, redrew nations’ relations with one another and frayed a tightly woven global economy.
The numbers are heart-breaking:
- According to the United Nations, 7,200 civilians were confirmed dead by 15 February 2023 and more than 11,500 were injured.
- The number of soldiers killed in the conflict is unknown but Gen Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimates that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war.
- The displacement of people has been equally traumatic. 18,6 million people fled across the border of Ukraine to neighbouring countries and 5.3 million people were internally displaced.
- Since the invasion started a year ago, more than 10 million people returned to Ukraine.
- Currently, Russia is home to the most Ukrainian refugees (2.8 million) with Poland second and Germany third
The war’s economic impact has been felt from chilly homes in Europe to food markets in Africa.
Before the war, European Union nations imported almost half their natural gas and a third of their oil from Russia. The invasion and sanctions slapped on Russia in response, delivered an energy price shock on a scale not seen since the 1970s.
The war disrupted global trade that was still recovering from the pandemic. Food prices have soared, since Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of wheat and sunflower oil, and Russia is the world’s top fertilizer producer.
Let’s pray for those who have lost loved ones, possessions, freedoms and dreams. Pray for healing and hope, peace and purpose,
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Who is winning?
Sadly, there are no winners in a war, only losers. Ukraine, Russia, and the world have all lost.
However, there are two unquantifiable losses on both sides that were most probably not considered before the conflict started.
From a Russian perspective, the very purpose for which the Russian invasion took place, to stop the eastward march of NATO, has now seen the exact opposite result. Instead of weakening NATO, the invasion united and strengthened the Organisation. Fearing Russia’s muscle flexing, former neutral countries like Finland and Sweden have also signed up for NATO membership.
From a Ukrainian perspective, Ukraine has lost more than lives and infrastructure, it has lost its autonomy and independence. President Zelenskyy has seemingly emerged strong, but the question needs to be asked: Is he really his own man? Can he call for peace without the approval of the US and NATO? The answer is: No.
In fact, despite the glorification of Ukraine and its leader, the fact remains that the ball is in Washington’s court. Zelensky became a puppet and Ukraine the battleground. It is fighting not for itself alone but for the US and Europe. The west is spending billions of dollars in supporting and arming Ukraine with sophisticated weapons to take back territory ceded to Russia. Zelenskyy’s every wish is a command for US and Europe.
Let us pray for a resolution. Pray that leaders will denounce power and pursue peace.
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What are the possibilities of a nuclear war?
On 21 February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is suspending its participation in the New Start treaty it has signed with the US to limit the strategic nuclear arsenals of both sides.
“Regarding this issue, I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Offensive Weapons Treaty,” Putin said.
The New Start treaty was signed in 2010 and limits the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the US to a maximum of 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads for each side, a 30% reduction from the 2002 cap. It also limits missile launchers and strategic bombers to 800 for each side. What remains is enough to destroy the Earth many times over.
Currently, joint NATO forces have access to 6,065 nuclear heads while Russia has access to 6,255. A nuclear war, initiated from either side, will no doubt unleash a global catastrophe that the planet will not survive. About one hundred million people would die from the blasts in the first hours of the war. Weeks later, lower temperatures would reduce the growing season of plants and shift weather patterns, with disastrous effects on global crop production. An estimated 1 to 2 billion people, a quarter of the world’s population, could face starvation.
There is no doubt that the threats of a nuclear war will become a weapon in itself. Daniel Shayesteh, a former Iranian politician, said the following: “Mr. Putin can threaten Europe with hell because he has seen it (the nuclear explosion in Chornobyl). Europe will be easily scared by hell because they have never seen it.”
Let’s pray for sanity amongst global leaders to consider the consequences of their words and the significance of their actions.
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When will it end?
Not soon, is the concurred answer.
One year since the Russian troops rolled into Ukraine, the offensive is far from over. As the US and European allies pump money and artillery into Ukraine, the end is nowhere in sight.
From a Ukrainian perspective, Volodimir Zelensky has done little to find a peaceful solution. For the past year, he has solicited more than US$60 billion in military aid from more than 40 nations. Not once was an appeal made for a peacemaker to intervene.
From a Russian perspective, things are not much different. Happymon Jacob, JNU Professor and Founder of, Council for Strategic and Defence Research described the Russian position as follows:
“Things clearly have not gone the way Russian President Vladimir Putin had planned. That said, Putin is probably not expecting an immediate victory in Ukraine now. He is expecting cracks to develop within NATO, within the US and the European support to Ukraine; he is expecting this to tire out the Ukrainians too,”
At the end of the day, Jacob says, Putin knows only the Russians will have the stomach to continue on with a protracted war that might extend into a few years.
The US, on the other hand, is expecting to see a weakened Russia—faced with international isolation, a weakened military and economy. Currently, the Russians might opt for a limited offensive and will push hard in the spring offensive that is likely coming.
“2023 is important because Russia is expecting a strong push-back from Ukraine, flush with money and ammunition from the West,” Jacob says.
Neither side is likely to come to the negotiating table this year.
Let us pray for peace. Lasting peace. Implemented peace.
SOURCE:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/